HIV Sexual Transmission Is Predominantly Driven by Single Individuals Rather than Discordant Couples: A Model-Based Approach

Understanding the relative contribution to HIV transmission from different social groups is important for public-health policy. Information about the importance of stable serodiscordant couples (when one partner is infected but not the other) relative to contacts outside of stable partnerships in spreading disease can aid in designing and targeting interventions. However, the overall importance of within-couple transmission, and the determinants and correlates of this importance, are not well understood. Here, we explore how mechanistic factors – like partnership dynamics and rates of extra-couple transmission – affect various routes of transmission, using a compartmental model with parameters based on estimates from Sub-Saharan Africa. Under our assumptions, when sampling model parameters within a realistic range, we find that infection of uncoupled individuals is usually the predominant route (median 0.62, 2.5%–97.5% quantiles: 0.26–0.88), while transmission within discordant couples is usually important, but rarely represents the majority of transmissions (median 0.33, 2.5%–97.5% quantiles: 0.10–0.67). We find a strong correlation between long-term HIV prevalence and the contact rate of uncoupled individuals, implying that this rate may be a key driver of HIV prevalence. For a given level of prevalence, we find a negative correlation between the proportion of discordant couples and the within-couple transmission rate, indicating that low discordance in a population may reflect a relatively high rate of within-couple transmission. Transmission within or outside couples and among uncoupled individuals are all likely to be important in sustaining heterosexual HIV transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa. Hence, intervention policies should be broadly targeted when practical.     

Perovskite Solar Cells go Outdoors: Field Testing and Temperature Effects on Energy Yield

Perovskite solar cells (PSC) have shown that under laboratory conditions they can compete with established photovoltaic technologies. However, controlled laboratory measurements usually performed do not fully resemble operational conditions and field testing outdoors, with day‐night cycles, changing irradiance and temperature. In this contribution, the performance of PSCs in the rooftop field test, exposed to real weather conditions is evaluated. The 1 cm² single‐junction devices, with an initial average power conversion efficiency of 18.5% are tracked outdoors in maximum power point over several weeks. In parallel, irradiance and air temperature are recorded, allowing us to correlate outside factors with generated power. To get more insight into outdoor device performance, a comprehensive set of laboratory measurements under different light intensities (10% to 120% of AM1.5) and temperatures is performed. From these results, a low power temperature coefficient of ?0.17% K^?1 is extracted in the temperature range between 25 and 85 °C. By incorporating these temperature‐ and light‐dependent PV parameters into the energy yield model, it is possible to correctly predict the generated energy of the devices, thus validating the energy yield model. In addition, degradation of the tested devices can be tracked precisely from the difference between measured and modelled power.     

Post‐fire development of faunal habitat depends on plant regeneration traits

The concept that vegetation structure (and faunal habitat) develops predictably with time since fire has been central to understanding the relationship between fire and fauna. However, because plants regenerate after fire in different ways (e.g. resprouting from above‐ground stems vs. underground lignotubers), use of simple categories based on time since fire might not adequately represent post‐fire habitat development in all ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that the post‐fire development of faunal habitat structure differs between ecosystems, depending on fire regeneration traits of the dominant canopy trees. We measured 12 habitat components at sites in foothill forests (n = 38), heathy woodlands (n = 38) and mallee woodlands (n = 98) in Victoria, Australia, and used generalised additive models to predict changes in each variable with time since fire. A greater percentage of faunal habitat variables responded significantly to time since fire in mallee woodlands, where fires typically are stand‐replacing, than in foothill forests and heathy woodlands, where canopy tree stems generally persist through fire. In the ecosystem with the highest proportion of epicormic resprouters (foothill forests), only ground cover and understorey vegetation responded significantly to time since fire, compared with all but one variable in the ecosystem dominated by basal resprouters (mallee woodlands). These differences between ecosystems in the post‐fire development of key habitat components suggest there may also be fundamental differences in the role of fire in shaping the distribution of fauna. If so, this challenges the way in which many fire‐prone ecosystems currently are categorised and managed, especially the level of dependence on time since fire and other temporal surrogates such as age‐classes and successional states. Where time since fire is a poor surrogate for habitat structural development, additional complexity (e.g. fire severity, topography and prior land‐use history) could better capture processes that determine faunal occurrence in fire‐prone ecosystems.     

The effectiveness of flower strips and hedgerows on pest control,pollination services and crop yield: a quantitative synthesis

Floral plantings are promoted to foster ecological intensification of agriculture through provisioning of ecosystem services. However, a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of different floral plantings, their characteristics and consequences for crop yield is lacking. Here we quantified the impacts of flower strips and hedgerows on pest control (18 studies) and pollination services (17 studies) in adjacent crops in North America, Europe and New Zealand. Flower strips, but not hedgerows, enhanced pest control services in adjacent fields by 16% on average. However, effects on crop pollination and yield were more variable. Our synthesis identifies several important drivers of variability in effectiveness of plantings: pollination services declined exponentially with distance from plantings, and perennial and older flower strips with higher flowering plant diversity enhanced pollination more effectively. These findings provide promising pathways to optimise floral plantings to more effectively contribute to ecosystem service delivery and ecological intensification of agriculture in the future.     

Using density surface models to estimate spatio-temporal changes in population densities and trend

Precise measures of population abundance and trend are needed for species conservation; these are most difficult to obtain for rare and rapidly changing populations. We compare uncertainty in densities estimated from spatio–temporal models with that from standard design-based methods. Spatio–temporal models allow us to target priority areas where, and at times when, a population may most benefit. Generalised additive models were fitted to a 31-year time series of point-transect surveys of an endangered Hawaiian forest bird, the Hawai‘i ‘ākepa Loxops coccineus. This allowed us to estimate bird densities over space and time. We used two methods to quantify uncertainty in density estimates from the spatio–temporal model: the delta method (which assumes independence between detection and distribution parameters) and a variance propagation method. With the delta method we observed a 52% decrease in the width of the design-based 95% confidence interval (CI), while we observed a 37% decrease in CI width when propagating the variance. We mapped bird densities as they changed across space and time, allowing managers to evaluate management actions. Integrating detection function modelling with spatio–temporal modelling exploits survey data more efficiently by producing finer-grained abundance estimates than are possible with design-based methods as well as producing more precise abundance estimates. Model-based approaches require switching from making assumptions about the survey design to assumptions about bird distribution. Such a switch warrants consideration. In this case the model-based approach benefits conservation planning through improved management efficiency and reduced costs by taking into account both spatial shifts and temporal changes in population abundance and distribution.